It's a bit like being in a Kafka novel or on the other side of the looking glass to read what the US press has to say about Mexico -- and now the very frightening report from the US Military. The Joint Command of the Armed Forces has issued a report offering its vision of strategic problems for the US over the next twenty five years. This report claims Mexico is as much in danger of becoming a failed state (or almost as much) as Pakistan.
This is either madness or very calculated or both. It is starting to seem as if the US is looking for justification to make a Bush-like pre-emptive strike against Mexico. The fact that Obama really knows nothing about Mexico and has no one on his staff that I'm aware of who does and has indicated that he will be putting Mexico "on the back burner," i.e. a place where he doesn't learn more about it, doesn't bode well. The utter ignorance in the US of Mexico, the totally wrongheaded images of Mexico, the racism directed towards Mexicans, is, to say the least, horrifying. This report feeds directly into it, perhaps deliberately.
Below is my translation of the article in La Jornada by David Brooks, the US bureau chief for that paper (not the NYTimes columnist), describing this situation.
I hope you read it and then read the rebuttal that will follow in another post shortly (I hope -- I'm a bit swamped by work) by the foreign secretary of Mexico and then more information.
For reasons that are not clear to me, the US press and government have kept a very nasty and distorting spotlight on Mexico. As you read the article, you will notice how some states are highlighted as "good" or on the right road. Cuba and Venezuela, as one might expect, receive their own special treatment. At least Brazil and Colombia have problems as great as Mexico's. I don't know enough about Argentina, Peru and Chile. I do know that today, Argentina's president is visiting Cuba.
As you read the report, see if it doesn't strike you that the military or someone in the US is trying to divide an increasingly allied Latin America and is trying to look for justification to invade Mexico. The US has an unfortunate history of invading Mexico, though Americans aren't really aware of it.
Among global threats in the future, “most worrying is the
sudden and rapid collapse of Pakistan and Mexico,” warns a report produced by
the Joint Command of the Armed Forces of the United States. This report’s purpose is to put forth a
vision of the strategic problems of the next 25 years.
In the section of week and broken states, the document says
that although the majority are in Africa and parts of Asia, one has to take
into account the “phenomenon of ‘rapid collapse’” which happens in a surprising
fashion, and the report highlighted the
case of Yugoslavia as an example. The
report, prepared for the highest military commands and those in charge of
making civilian decisions in matters of national security affirmed that in
terms of worst case scenarios for the Joint Chiefs and in fact for the world,
two large and important states merit consideration [in the face of the
possibility] of a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico.
In the case of Mexico, compared with Pakistan, the authors
pointed out that “it might be less likely, but the government, its politics,
the police and the judicial infrastructure are all under assault and feeling
sustained pressure from criminal gangs and drug cartels.”
It emphasized that the result of this internal conflict over
the coming years “would have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican
state. Any descent on the part of Mexico
to chaos will demand an American answer based exclusively on the serious implications
for the security of the United States.”
It insists: “the growing assault of the drug cartels and
their henchmen on the Mexican government during the past reminds us that an
unstable Mexico could represent a security problem of immense proportions for
the United States.
Latin America
In the region, the report emphasized that “the military
problems which arise in South and Central America probably will originate in
the interior [of each country],” and mentioned in particular the drug cartels
and criminal gangs, “while terrorists continue finding a place in some of the
frontier areas of the continent which are outside of the law.”
It indicates, however, that “for the most part the economic situation of South America
suggests that the region would be able to be in a position to avoid these
problems.” Thus, “Brazil in particular
appears to be on a course which would make it a major player among the great
powers by 2030, and Chile, Argentina and Peru and possibly Colombia will enjoy
sustained growth if they continue their prudent economic policies.”
It emphasizes the major potential challenges at present are
Cuba and Venezuela. It explained that
the fall of the Castros will create the possibility of major changes in the
policies of the island. The future of
Venezuela is more difficult to read. The
Chavez regime is redirecting substantial amounts of its oil revenue to promote
the anti-American ‘Bolivian revolution’ and at the same time consolidating
control of the power of the regime to distribute petroleum wealth to its
sympathizers. By trying to do both
things it is delaying investments in its petroleum infrastructure which could
have serious repercussions for the future.
It warned that “unless the present regime changed its
direction, it would be able to use its petroleum wealth to subvert its
neighbors for an extended period while promoting anti-American activities on a
global scale with nations like Iran, Russia and China creating as a consequence
opportunities to foment anti-American in the zone.
The report considers that “a serious impediment to growth in
Latin America is in the power of criminal gangs and drug cartels which corrupt,
distort and hurt the potential of the region.
Migration
In the section discussing demographic changes in the world,
the report points out that for the decade of 2030 the US population will grow
to approximately 355 million. “This
growth will result not only from births in American families, but also from the
continuation of immigration, especially from Mexico and the Caribbean. By 2030, at least 15 percent of each state
will be Hispanic in origin; some states will be more than 50%. The effects which may occur as Americans try
to assimilate these new immigrants to the poltics and culture of the nation
will play a central role in the
perspectives of the country.
The report Joint Operations Environment 2008 or JOE
was released this past December by the Joint Command of the US Armed
Forces and its purpose is to describe the “future operational environment and
its implications” for the conventional armed forces of the US. The report is for use by those in charge of
making military and civilian decisions
and to generate a broad dialogue over the nature of military threats and
national security and possible military needs.
Effort to determine challenges.
The JOE report “is historically
our informed effort with forecasts for the future to discover in the most
precise manner the challengeswhich will confront us at the operational level of
war, and to determine their inherent implications. We recognize that the future environment will
not be exactly as we describe it.
However, we are confident enough in the rigor of this report that it can
serve to guide the development of concepts for the future,” writes General J.N.
Mattis, Commander of the Joint Command, in the Introduction.
The command is one of the new commands of the
Department of Defense. It is located in
Norfolk, VA and has more than 1.16 million employees, civilian as well as
military, from all branches of the armed forces.
Mountain stream, Veracruz, Mexico
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